The Golden Globes is one of the most entertaining award shows to watch.
Nominees are wined and dined among colleagues before the ceremony starts, but the alcohol continues to flow. For that reason alone, what happens at the Globes are as unpredictable as the announced winners.
The Globes (the award) are known to be important for another reason. The results predict, perhaps even influence, the outcome for the Oscars. But according to one theorist, that's a general misconception.
YouTube channel, The Film Theorists!, refers to the Golden Globe Awards outcome as a reliable indicator for Oscar wins. Between 1983 and 2003, the Globes predicted the Oscar winners 18 out of 20 times. That's an 86% accuracy rate.
However, in the last 12 years, that probability has dropped by 33%. What happened?
The Theorists explain that the tastes of the American entertainment industry was starting to differ from those of the Hollywood Foreign Press, a non-profit organization consisting of journalists and photographers outside the U.S. who vote for the Golden Globes.
Oscar voters used to be comprised of 6,000 industry professionals who were mostly still active, and also, historically 96% white. But this year, 600 people were added to the voting party to address complaints from a lack of diversity represented.
Unfortunately, that adjustment did little to sway results.
In an interesting video, The Theorists dispense with the idea that the Golden Globes heavily influence the Oscars.
Want to impress your co-workers by predicting who's walking away with the coveted golden statuettes this year?
To start, adhere to these lessons from compiled data for Oscar predictability:
1. Trust the guilds choices: Director's Guild of America, the Writer's Guild of America, the Producer's Guild of America and the Screen Actor's Guild.
2. Ignore critics.
They are unreliable across the board. Critics have been able to accurately predict only half of the time in any category.
3. Award shows aren't enough.
Even though a 70% accuracy rate is stellar, losing still sucks.
So what is the BEST indicator for the Oscar winners?